China 2016 crude oil import growth may exceed 800,000 bpd -analyst

Source: www.chinamining.org         Citation: Reuters        Date: March 4, 2016

China`s crude oil imports may rise by more than 800,000 barrels per day this year, boosted by storage needs, robust gasoline demand and fuel exports, an executive from a Beijing-based consultancy said on Thursday.

The jump in imports, if realised, could see China overtaking the United States as the world`s largest crude importer after China`s average crude imports hit a record 6.71 million bpd in 2015, up 8.8 percent from a year ago.

China is expected to import 860,000 bpd more crude this year, Yao Li, chief executive of SIA Energy said at a Platts conference.

 Independent refiners who recently received import quotas, have become a driver of Chinese crude demand and their preference for low-sulphur oil could cause producers from Venezuela and the Middle East to lose market share, Li said.

"China`s crude oil slate will become sweeter and lighter because of production yield requirement and as independent refiners prefer low-sulphur crude due to cost advantage," she said.

"Middle East producers will probably lose more market share. Russian ESPO is the biggest winner."

China`s domestic oil consumption is expected to grow by 410,000 bpd as strong car sales boost gasoline use in the world`s second largest economy, Li said. The estimate is higher than that of the International Energy Agency which sees China`s oil demand growing by 330,000 bpd to 11.51 million bpd in 2016.

SIA Energy`s Li expects Chinese fuel exports to rise by 330,000 bpd this year as local refiners, driven by strong margins, have increased output, although this will be offset by incremental imports of 120,000 bpd, including mixed aromatics for gasoline blending.

Most of the exports will be from state refiners rather than private companies as they have weak trading capabilities, Li said. Private refiners are "more likely to compete in the domestic market", she added.

China is also expected to import 240,000 bpd more crude than last year to fill storage tanks for strategic and commercial purposes, Li said.

 More imports are also needed to replace falling domestic crude production, she said.

Sinopec said in February it will shut four small oilfields this year at Shengli in the eastern province of Shandong as low global oil prices take a toll on output from the country`s ageing fields.

About CHINA MINING

Since first held in 1999, the scope and influence of CHINA MINING has grown rapidly year by year. As a global mining summit forum and exhibition, CHINA MINING Congress and Expo has become one of the world’s top mining events, and one of the world’s largest mining exploration, development and trading platforms, covering all aspects of the whole mining industry chain, including geological survey, exploration and development, mining rights trading, mining investment and financing, smelting and processing, mining techniques and equipment, mining services, etc. playing an active promotion role in creating exchange opportunities and enhancing mutual cooperation between domestic and foreign mining enterprises.

CHINA MINING Congress and Expo 2016 will be held at Meijiang Convention and Exhibition Center in Tianjin on September 22nd -25th, 2016. We invite you to join the event and to celebrate the 18th anniversary of CHINA MINING with us.  For more information about CHINA MINING 2016, please visit: m.balanzskin.com.

China raises coal bed methane gas subsidy to help fight air pollution

Source: www.chinamining.org         Citation: www.scmp.com        Date: March 2, 2016

Beijing has raised the subsidy for coal bed methane (cbm) production by half from this year to 2020 in a move to encourage exploration and production of the cleaner-burning fuel as part of its air pollution control initiatives.

The subsidy for each cubic metre of cbm ¨C natural gas trapped among coal seams ¨C has been raised to 0.3 yuan in the five years to 2020 from 0.2 yuan in previous years, the Ministry of Finance said in a statement posted on its website on Tuesday.

The move is expected to help struggling producers of the greener but more challenging and expensive to extract natural gas, after Beijing slashed non-residential wholesale natural gas prices by an average of 28 per cent from November following a crash in global energy prices.

 "Many cbm projects are no longer profitable following the recent domestic gas price cut amid slowing demand growth," Nomura Asia-Pacific head of oil and gas research Gordon Kwan said. "This is why China is lending a helping hand to the producers to motivate long-term investment in cbm."

Cbm and shale gas ¨C natural gas trapped between shale formations ¨C are unconventional forms of gas that are free from state pricing, but they have not been immune from price reduction pressure since conventional gas has similar properties to and competes with unconventional gas.

 China is rich in unconventional gas but poorly endowed in conventional gas.

Hong Kong-listed and Shanxi province-based AAG Energy, the first non-state-owned cbm explorer to get Beijing¡¯s permission to enter into large-scale commercial production in 2011, said in January competition from the expected conventional gas price cut forced it to lower its own cbm prices as early as September.

 As a result, its average selling price fell 11.9 per cent to 1.56 yuan per cubic metre in the second half of last year from 1.77 yuan in the first half.

The latest 0.1 yuan per cubic metre subsidy increase is not sufficient to offset the price decline.

 Since 2005, Beijing has offered conventional gas producers preferential policies to entice companies to invest in the nascent sector, including refunds on value-added tax collected from gas sales, exemption from equipment import duties, and free-market gas pricing.

 Last May, the National Energy Administration said the shale gas subsidy would be cut from 0.3 yuan between 2016 and 2018 to 0.2 yuan between 2019 and 2020, as production costs were expected to fall with technological improvement and rising production scale.

 Kwan said "there is a good chance" Bejiing will cancel the cut given the sharp fall in energy prices in the past 18 months.

 "Policies in China do change in exceptional times and no one anticipated earlier that global oil and gas prices could collapse to such depressed levels," he said.

About CHINA MINING

Since first held in 1999, the scope and influence of CHINA MINING has grown rapidly year by year. As a global mining summit forum and exhibition, CHINA MINING Congress and Expo has become one of the world’s top mining events, and one of the world’s largest mining exploration, development and trading platforms, covering all aspects of the whole mining industry chain, including geological survey, exploration and development, mining rights trading, mining investment and financing, smelting and processing, mining techniques and equipment, mining services, etc. playing an active promotion role in creating exchange opportunities and enhancing mutual cooperation between domestic and foreign mining enterprises.

CHINA MINING Congress and Expo 2016 will be held at Meijiang Convention and Exhibition Center in Tianjin on September 22nd -25th, 2016. We invite you to join the event and to celebrate the 18th anniversary of CHINA MINING with us.  For more information about CHINA MINING 2016, please visit: m.balanzskin.com.

Brent crude price drop takes toll on Yanchang Petroleum

Source: www.chinamining.org         Citation: China Daily        Date: February 24, 2016

A worker checks facilities of Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum (Group) Co in Wuqi county, Shaanxi province. (Photo/Xinhua)

Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum (Group) Co, China`s fourth-biggest oil producer by output, may cease production in some oilfields and stop drilling both old and new wells in some areas in response to the sharp plunge in crude oil prices, a media report said on Monday. 

The Yan`an-based company faces huge pressure over soaring cost in terms of oil exploitation, personnel and operation. The cost for oil production at Yanchang stands at about $70 per barrel, against a national average of $40, according to sources quoted by Securities Daily.  

In order to remain profitable, the State-run company also plans to cut capital spending by a total of 3.1 billion yuan ($480 million) this year and merge at least three oil drilling facilities, the report said.  

Yanchang Petroleum lowered its oil output target to 12.2 million metric tons for this year, about 200,000 tons lower than a year earlier, according to a statement on the company`s website.  

The more than 50 percent slump in global crude oil prices since June has badly hit producer`s earnings. Brent crude oil is currently below $30 a barrel, for the first time since May 2009.  

Yanchang Petroleum is not the first firm to respond to the price dive by cutting spending or suspending production.  

Shengli Oilfield, owned by China Petroleum & Chemical Corp, the nation`s second-largest oil major, plans to shut down four oilfields in the country`s eastern Shandong province to stay afloat.  

The company, also known as Sinopec, said the four oilfields are the least profitable projects in the region with only a few tens of thousands tons of production, and the shutdown could save at least 200 million yuan.  

At the same time, Daqing Oilfield, the largest oilfield explored by China`s major oil and gas producer China National Petroleum Corp, reduced crude oil production in 2015 for the first time in seven years.  

Though it is a painful process to make cuts or even suspend production, it is better to act early than leave it, experts.  

"It is a normal practice when oil prices plunge. It is an adaption that oil companies have to make to meet market requirements," said Han Xiaoping, chief executive officer of online energy information portal China5E.com.  

He said the cost for oil exploitation has been rising as some wells are getting old, but oil prices have been plummeting even faster, putting huge pressure on many large oil producers.  

"Oil companies need to bring costs down in line with the current lower oil prices. Many foreign companies have also made plans to sell off part of their assets or even start drilling fewer wells," he said.

About CHINA MINING

Since first held in 1999, the scope and influence of CHINA MINING has grown rapidly year by year. As a global mining summit forum and exhibition, CHINA MINING Congress and Expo has become one of the world’s top mining events, and one of the world’s largest mining exploration, development and trading platforms, covering all aspects of the whole mining industry chain, including geological survey, exploration and development, mining rights trading, mining investment and financing, smelting and processing, mining techniques and equipment, mining services, etc. playing an active promotion role in creating exchange opportunities and enhancing mutual cooperation between domestic and foreign mining enterprises.

CHINA MINING Congress and Expo 2016 will be held at Meijiang Convention and Exhibition Center in Tianjin on September 22nd -25th, 2016. We invite you to join the event and to celebrate the 18th anniversary of CHINA MINING with us.  For more information about CHINA MINING 2016, please visit: m.balanzskin.com.

More than 1,000 coal mines scheduled to close in 2016

Source: www.chinamining.org         Citation: Reuters        Date: February 23, 2016

China aims to close more than 1,000 coal mines with a total production capacity of 60 million tons this year, as part of its plans to tackle a price-sapping supply glut in the sector, the country`s energy regulator said.

The nation is the world`s top coal consumer but demand has been on the wane as economic growth slows and the country shifts away from fossil fuels in order to curb pollution.

In a notice posted on its website on Monday, the National Energy Administration (NEA) said the closures would form part of the plan released earlier this month to shut as much as 500 million tons of surplus production capacity within the next three to five years.

China has 10,760 coal mines, and 5,600 of them will eventually be required to close under a policy banning those with an annual output capacity of less than 90,000 tons, the China National Coal Association has estimated.

The government has promised to stop approving all new coal mine projects for three years in a bid to control capacity. The country produced 5.7 billion tons of coal last year and has an estimated capacity surplus of 1.7 billion tons, according to domestic news portal sohu.com.

Last year, the supply overhang dragged down domestic coal prices by one-third, but there has been some recovery this year with thermal coal at the port of Qinhuangdao up 2.7 percent at 380 yuan ($58.29) per ton.

Apart from coal, China will also aim to tackle overcapacity in the thermal power sector this year by controlling new projects and cancelling projects in regions with the biggest capacity surpluses.

Utilization rates in the power sector last year fell to their lowest since 1978, with demand failing to keep up with the rapid expansion in capacity.

China will further promote a program that allows suppliers to enter into direct power sales agreements with consumers, and it will also work to reduce power prices this year, according to the NEA.

About CHINA MINING

Since first held in 1999, the scope and influence of CHINA MINING has grown rapidly year by year. As a global mining summit forum and exhibition, CHINA MINING Congress and Expo has become one of the world’s top mining events, and one of the world’s largest mining exploration, development and trading platforms, covering all aspects of the whole mining industry chain, including geological survey, exploration and development, mining rights trading, mining investment and financing, smelting and processing, mining techniques and equipment, mining services, etc. playing an active promotion role in creating exchange opportunities and enhancing mutual cooperation between domestic and foreign mining enterprises.

CHINA MINING Congress and Expo 2016 will be held at Meijiang Convention and Exhibition Center in Tianjin on September 22nd -25th, 2016. We invite you to join the event and to celebrate the 18th anniversary of CHINA MINING with us.  For more information about CHINA MINING 2016, please visit: m.balanzskin.com.

China`s coastal coal freights began rising in week to Tuesday

Source: www.chinamining.org     Citation: Platts      Date: February 22, 2016

Freight rates for shipping coal from northern China`s Qinhuangdao port to the other Chinese ports of Zhangjiagang, Shanghai and Guangzhou in eastern and southern China began to rise in the week to Tuesday, port operator Qinhuangdao Port said.

The freight rate from Qinhuangdao to Zhangjiagang in eastern China`s Jiangsu province for 20,000-30,000 mt capacity vessels rose by Yuan 0.70/mt on the week to Yuan 29.50/mt ($4.28/mt) on Tuesday, Qinhuangdao Port said.

The rate from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai in eastern China for vessels with a capacity of 40,000-50,000 mt edged up Yuan 0.90/mt on the week to Yuan 22.60/mt. The rate from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou in southern China for 50,000-60,000 mt capacity vessels rose by Yuan 1.40/mt to Yuan 32.60/mt.

A recovery in downstream coal demand after the spring festival holidays, coupled with news that China has stopped importing coal from North Korea since Sunday, has boosted the coastal coal freight market, the report said.

Meanwhile, coal stocks at Qinhuangdao port were 4.41 million mt on Tuesday, up from 4.715 million mt on February 14, port figures showed.

About CHINA MINING

Since first held in 1999, the scope and influence of CHINA MINING has grown rapidly year by year. As a global mining summit forum and exhibition, CHINA MINING Congress and Expo has become one of the world’s top mining events, and one of the world’s largest mining exploration, development and trading platforms, covering all aspects of the whole mining industry chain, including geological survey, exploration and development, mining rights trading, mining investment and financing, smelting and processing, mining techniques and equipment, mining services, etc. playing an active promotion role in creating exchange opportunities and enhancing mutual cooperation between domestic and foreign mining enterprises.

CHINA MINING Congress and Expo 2013 will be held at Meijiang Convention and Exhibition Center in Tianjin on November 2-5, 2013. We invite you to join the event and to celebrate the 15th anniversary of CHINA MINING with us. For more information about CHINA MINING 2013, please visit: m.balanzskin.com.

China`s Shenhua sticking with Australia coal project despite legal challenges

Source: www.chinamining.org         Citation: Platts        Date: February 19, 2016

China coal giant Shenhua remains committed to its sole Australian export coal project despite legal challenges from environmental groups the latest this week in the New South Wales Land and Environment Court, an Australia-based spokesman for the company said Thursday.  

Seven months have passed since Australian federal environment minister Greg Hunt gave his approval last July for Shenhua`s 100%-owned Watermark project in the Liverpool Plains pastoral region of New South Wales, thereby allowing it to proceed to its development phase.  

The project involves the extraction of 133 million mt of metallurgical coal and 26 million mt of thermal coal for shipment through Newcastle port, and has attracted controversy over its potential impact on groundwater supplies including freshwater acquifers and on farmland.  

Conservation group the Upper Mooki Landcare group and Shenhua Watermark Coal is listed for a judgment hearing at the Land and Environment Court in Sydney on Friday, according to the court`s website.  

The legal challenge by the Upper Mooki Landcare group concerns the potential impact on 850 hectares of habitat for koala bears that stands to be cleared for Shenhua`s Watermark mine project in the Gunnedah Basin coal field of New South Wales.  

Shenhua has spent about A$1 billion ($700 million) on its Watermark project since landing an exploration license for the mine site in 2008 for which it paid A$300 million.  

The Chinese company has incurred additional costs since such as A$200 million on acquiring land from local farmers, and A$175 milion of infrastructure spending. 

The Watermark project will have an estimated capital cost of A$780 million when it eventually goes ahead.  

SETBACKS  

Shenhua has suffered a number of setbacks in relation to its Watermark project, including having to resubmit -- along with other coal companies -- its application for a mining license after a new planning approvals process was introduced following the 2011 New South Wales state election.  

Undeterred, Shenhua said via a spokesman Thursday that it intends to see the project through to its completion.  

"The company continues to work on various regulatory requirements since achieving state and Commonwealth government approvals last year," said Shenhua Watermark spokesman Jonathon Moore by telephone from Sydney.  

The New South Wales government`s independent Planning Assessment Commission gave Shenhua approval for the environmental aspects of its Watermark project in 2014.  

This allowed for the extraction of up to 10 million mt/year of coal at the Watermark site until June 2046.  

Thermal and coking coal mined from the project`s three open-cut pits will be transported 282 km (175 miles) via rail to Newcastle port. During the mine`s peak production period, 16 train movements a day will be required, said Shenhua in a submission report to the PAC.

About CHINA MINING

Since first held in 1999, the scope and influence of CHINA MINING has grown rapidly year by year. As a global mining summit forum and exhibition, CHINA MINING Congress and Expo has become one of the world’s top mining events, and one of the world’s largest mining exploration, development and trading platforms, covering all aspects of the whole mining industry chain, including geological survey, exploration and development, mining rights trading, mining investment and financing, smelting and processing, mining techniques and equipment, mining services, etc. playing an active promotion role in creating exchange opportunities and enhancing mutual cooperation between domestic and foreign mining enterprises.

CHINA MINING Congress and Expo 2016 will be held at Meijiang Convention and Exhibition Center in Tianjin on September 22nd -25th, 2016. We invite you to join the event and to celebrate the 18th anniversary of CHINA MINING with us.  For more information about CHINA MINING 2016, please visit: m.balanzskin.com.

China`s oil demand growing, but at a slower pace

Source: www.chinamining.org     Citation: UPI      Date: February 14, 2016

A metric used to gauge oil demand in China, the world`s second-largest economy, show steady gains but at a slower pace than before, S&P Global Platts said.

Platts measured China`s apparent oil demand, which measures the amount moving through domestic refineries against net imports, at 2.3 percent higher in December when compared with last year.

When using official government data, apparent oil demand last year declined 0.8 percent as the economy moved from a quantitative growth phase to a qualitative one. The assessment from Platts, however, said it found an increase because of activity at independent Chinese refineries.

"That said, the pace of growth fell in 2016 from 6.6 percent in 2015, when oil demand had been boosted by a crude oil price drop to levels just over $50 per barrel," Song Yen Ling, a senior analyst with Platts China Oil Analytics, said in an emailed report. 

Ratings agencies Moody`s and Fitch in December reported the Chinese economy could face headwinds this year, with the banking sector facing the brunt of the downturn. Government estimates of the Consumer Price Index, which gauges national inflation, came in well below the official target rate of 3 percent.

By January, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics said growth was the slowest it`s been in a quarter century, but still likely to top all other major economies.

Economists with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries expect the Chinese economy will grow by 6.2 percent in 2017, against a forecast of 6.7 percent last year. 

China`s central bank on Monday injected $14.5 billion into the financial system, the official Xinhua News Agency reported. A monetary policy for the year was described by Xinhua as "prudent and neutral."

 

About CHINA MINING

Since first held in 1999, the scope and influence of CHINA MINING has grown rapidly year by year. As a global mining summit forum and exhibition, CHINA MINING Congress and Expo has become one of the world’s top mining events, and one of the world’s largest mining exploration, development and trading platforms, covering all aspects of the whole mining industry chain, including geological survey, exploration and development, mining rights trading, mining investment and financing, smelting and processing, mining techniques and equipment, mining services, etc. playing an active promotion role in creating exchange opportunities and enhancing mutual cooperation between domestic and foreign mining enterprises.

CHINA MINING Congress and Expo 2017 will be held at Meijiang Convention and Exhibition Center in Tianjin China in September 2017. We invite you to join the event and to celebrate the 19th anniversary of CHINA MINING with us. For more information about CHINA MINING 2017, please visit: m.balanzskin.com.

Profit outlook of oil and gas sector weak

Source: www.chinamining.org     Citation: Shanghai Daily      Date: February 08, 2016

More than three quarters of Chinese oil and gas executives do not expect profit growth in the industry this year amid an ongoing restructuring in state-owned giants and low oil prices denting the industry, a survey showed yesterday. 

Only 23 percent of the executives expect profit growth in the industry, a sharp drop from 61 percent last year and also below the global average of 32 percent, DNV GL, a Norwegian maritime and energy consultant, found in the survey. 

The survey covered 723 respondents globally, with 31 of them selected from China`s oil and gas giants such as Sinopec and China National Petroleum Corp, the country`s biggest oil and gas producer. 

The executives predicted slower growth as "they forecast oil prices to take a long time to rebound to US$70 per barrel," the point at which prices started to plunge two years ago, said Wu Yi, DNV`s business development manager for China, South Korea and Japan. 

Over 87 percent of the Chinese oil and gas executives would resort to cost cutting to survive the slowdown, according to DNV`s survey, up from last year`s 75 percent. 

Last month, CNPC predicted a 70-80 percent plunge in its net profit last year from 2015. The company blamed low oil prices, which "dragged down profits globally." 

China National Offshore Oil Corp suffered a 15.2 percent drop in its oil and gas sales in the third quarter of last year from a year earlier. 

The dismal picture has forced domestic oil and gas companies to implement layoffs and salary cuts in a bid to enhance their competitiveness. 

In December, CNPC announced a cut of 20 percent of its administrative employees to streamline its organization and boost efficiency. 

CNOOC "would cut its operational costs in the Bohai area this year," Wu said, quoting a CNOOC employee familiar with the issue.

 

 

About CHINA MINING

Since first held in 1999, the scope and influence of CHINA MINING has grown rapidly year by year. As a global mining summit forum and exhibition, CHINA MINING Congress and Expo has become one of the world’s top mining events, and one of the world’s largest mining exploration, development and trading platforms, covering all aspects of the whole mining industry chain, including geological survey, exploration and development, mining rights trading, mining investment and financing, smelting and processing, mining techniques and equipment, mining services, etc. playing an active promotion role in creating exchange opportunities and enhancing mutual cooperation between domestic and foreign mining enterprises.

CHINA MINING Congress and Expo 2017 will be held at Meijiang Convention and Exhibition Center in Tianjin China in September 2017. We invite you to join the event and to celebrate the 19th anniversary of CHINA MINING with us. For more information about CHINA MINING 2017, please visit: m.balanzskin.com.

China`s 2016 oil demand in the red as GDP growth hits 26-year low

Source: www.chinamining.org     Citation: www.platts.com      Date: February 04, 2016

China`s apparent oil demand slipped into the negative territory in 2016, a sharp reversal from the near 7% growth witnessed a year earlier, as the country`s slowest GDP growth in 26 years slashed appetite for industrial and transportation fuels in Asia`s biggest oil consuming nation.

A near 25% growth in LPG demand and close to double-digit growth in naphtha and jet fuel demand failed to offset the impact of sharp falls in gasoil and fuel oil consumption, pulling down overall oil demand in 2016 by 0.8% to 11.11 million b/d, compared with a growth of 6.6% in 2015. 

The world`s second biggest oil consumer saw a sharp slowdown in demand after GDP growth slowed to 6.7% in 2016 from 6.9% in 2015 and 7.3% in 2014. GDP growth was 3.9% in 1990.

Although GDP growth was only 0.2 percentage points lower than in 2015, fixed asset investment growth slowed to 8.1% year on year in 2016 from 10% in 2015. 

Industrial production grew 6% in 2016, also lower than the 6.1% growth seen in 2015, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. 

These factors together pulled down gasoil consumption in the transportation and construction sectors, resulting in a 5.4% year-on-year fall in apparent demand for the fuel, which accounts for around 30% of China`s overall oil products consumption. 

Beijing does not release official data on oil demand and stocks. Platts calculates apparent or implied oil demand by taking into account official data on monthly throughput at Chinese refineries and net product imports. But the official data fails to reflect some of the crude throughput increases from the new crude oil consumers — the independent refineries. 

If output from the independent sector is taken into account, apparent demand last year is estimated to be around 11.34 million b/d, representing 1.3% year-on-year growth, according S&P Global Platts` China Oil Analytics. 

For 2017, analysts expect GDP growth to further soften to 6.5%. The country`s think tank, the State Information Center, forecasts international trade will soften amid global protectionism and this will lead to slower growth in the consumption of transportation fuels. 

But oil demand will find some support in infrastructure investment, which according to HSBC will remain a key pillar of growth in 2017. 

COA forecasts China`s apparent demand will reach 11.57 million b/d in 2017, a 2% increase against the adjusted numbers for 2016. 

GASOIL FEELS THE PINCH 

Although gasoil demand recovered to a 24-month high of 3.76 million b/d in November, driven by busy transportation activity for raw materials, it failed to lift apparent demand growth for gasoil into positive territory in 2016. 

The transportation sector accounts for around 65% of gasoil demand, while agriculture and construction account for the rest. 

"Gasoil demand has been retreating since late November, with stocks building up," said a Shandong independent refinery source. 

 In 2016, apparent demand for gasoil was 3.35 million b/d, a 5.4% decrease year on year, compared with only a 0.4% decline in 2015, Platts` calculations showed. With an adjustment in output data, COA estimates demand at around 3.52 million b/d in 2016, a 0.6% fall year on year. 

The decrease would narrow further if the incremental supply from the blending pool was taken into account. Blended barrels, with imported light cycle oil and domestic kerosene as the main components, are not included in gasoil apparent demand calculations. 

China`s imports of light cycle oil surged 135% year on year to 4.46 million mt in 2016, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Blending with 1 mt of LCO could get 2-2.5 mt of off-spec gasoil, which is used mainly in the construction and fishing sectors. 

"Gasoil demand, including adjusted refinery output, could fall to 3.45 million b/d in 2017 as the economy restructures further and developed provinces along the eastern coast continue to move away from gasoil intensive activity," said Song Yen Ling, a senior analyst with COA. 

GASOLINE GROWTH MODERATES 

Apparent demand for gasoline was at 2.78 million b/d in 2016, representing slower year-on-year growth of 3.2%, compared with the 9.6% growth registered in 2015. But COA estimates that adjusted demand would be at 2.91 million b/d, a 7.8% increase from 2015 levels. 

Similar to gasoil, blending pools also played a role in overall gasoline supplies. Sales of imported mixed aromatics, which are used mainly as a blending material for gasoline, provide an indication of demand. 

Data from the GAC showed that imports of mixed aromatics surged 81.4% year on year to 11.7 million mt in 2016, suggesting a significant rise in blending activity. About 3 mt of mixed aromatics are needed to blend 10 mt of gasoline. This means that up to 39 million mt, or 906,000 b/d, could have been added to the supply pool in 2016. 

 Gasoline demand also found support in a 14% year-on-year rise in gasoline-fueled vehicle sales in 2016, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers showed, with sales of gasoline-guzzling sport utility vehicles surging 43% year on year. 

This year, COA expects growth in adjusted gasoline demand growth to slow to around 6% to 3.08 million b/d. "It is likely that the growth of car sales in 2017 would be softer than 2016," Song added. 

LPG, NAPHTHA 

LPG demand surged to 1.57 million b/d in 2016, up 24.8% year on year, compared with 20% growth in 2015. Market sources attributed last year`s strong growth to increasing demand from petrochemical plants, industrial and residential users. 

China launched two new PDH units, with a total capacity of 1.16 million mt/year, in the fourth quarter of 2016, adding to the six existing PDH plants with a total capacity of 4.74 million mt/year. As a result, China`s LPG imports jumped 33.4% on year to 505,000 b/d in 2016. 

This year, LPG demand is expected to continue growing but the year-on-year increase could slow to around 8.3% or 1.7 million b/d because downstream demand is likely to be limited. In addition, no new PDH plant is expected to come online, according to COA. 

Apparent demand for naphtha rose 9.8% year on year to 969,000 b/d in 2016. It was slightly higher than the 9% growth registered in 2015.

China`s ethylene production rose 3.9% year on year in 2016, stronger than the growth of 1.6% in the previous year. Around 65% naphtha is estimated to be used as feedstock to produce ethylene, while 30% go to reformers.

In 2017, as more reformers are expected to come on stream, naphtha imports are expected to grow sharply, while output from refineries is expected to remain stable. As a result, COA estimates growth to slow to 5.6% this year to 1.02 million b/d. 

JET FUEL, FUEL OIL

Apparent demand for jet fuel in 2016 rose 8.7% year on year to 754,000 b/d, slowing from 15.9% growth in 2015 when new production units came on stream. 

Latest data from the Civil Aviation Administration of China showed that aviation traffic turnover rose 12.7% year on year in the first 11 months of 2016, down from the 13.8% growth in the whole year of 2015. 

In 2017, COA expects apparent demand for jet fuel to grow at 12.3% to 847,000 b/d because of higher production yields of 8.6%, compared to 7.9% last year. 

Apparent demand for fuel oil in 2016 fell 23.9% year on year to 716,000 b/d, compared with an increase of 14.9% in 2015. The sharp fall in 2016 was mainly because independent refineries reduced fuel oil use, including bitumen blend, after they were granted crude oil import quotas. 

Independent refineries in Shandong province cracked only 1.9 million mt of fuel oil in 2016, down 76.8% from the previous year, data from Beijing-based information supplier JYD showed. COA expects consumption to decline only 1.4% year on year in 2017 to 704,000 b/d. 

About CHINA MINING

Since first held in 1999, the scope and influence of CHINA MINING has grown rapidly year by year. As a global mining summit forum and exhibition, CHINA MINING Congress and Expo has become one of the world’s top mining events, and one of the world’s largest mining exploration, development and trading platforms, covering all aspects of the whole mining industry chain, including geological survey, exploration and development, mining rights trading, mining investment and financing, smelting and processing, mining techniques and equipment, mining services, etc. playing an active promotion role in creating exchange opportunities and enhancing mutual cooperation between domestic and foreign mining enterprises.

CHINA MINING Congress and Expo 2017 will be held at Meijiang Convention and Exhibition Center in Tianjin China in September 2017. We invite you to join the event and to celebrate the 19th anniversary of CHINA MINING with us. For more information about CHINA MINING 2017, please visit: m.balanzskin.com.

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